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"Switch from coal to natural gas in power plants and heating systems even increases the greenhouse effect of energy consumption by around 40%"
„Climate Impacts“ of Fossil Fuels in Today’s Energy Systems
By Dr. Lars Schernikau and Prof. William Hayden Smith
Dr. Lars Schernikau, Prof. William Hayden Smith
Greenhouse gas emissions from fossil sources and additional emissions
from the switch from coal to new natural gas
ENERGYWATCHGROUP
The Energy Watch Group (EWG)
…
"Switch from coal to natural gas in power plants and heating systems even increases the greenhouse effect of
energy consumption by around 40%"
Figure 5: Switch from Gas/Oil to Coal increase GHG
Source: EnergyWatchGroup Germany 2019 (link).
GHG emissions
(t CO2eq per MWh)
「発電所や暖房器具を石炭から天然ガスに切り替えると、温室効果はさらに高まります。
エネルギー消費量を約40％増加させる"
図5：ガス・石油から石炭への転換によるGHGの増加
出典 EnergyWatchGroup Germany 2019（リンク）。
GHG排出量
(t CO2eq/ MWh)
'Climate Impacts' of Fossil Fuels in Today's Energy Systems
Date Written: November 21, 2021
Note: This is a draft working paper seeking external reviews only - this paper is currently under peer-review
The main fossil fuels oil, coal, and gas provide ~80% of global energy. In the next few years, "renewables" may meet only half the additional growth in global electricity demand or only about 20% of primary energy demand growth. The remaining increased energy demand will need to be matched by increased conventional energy generation.
Coal and gas together account for 50% of primary energy and 60% of electricity. Therefore, the authors examine the global warming potential for both fuels. The surprising conclusion is that surfaced-mined coal appears "better for the climate" than the average natural gas and all coal appears beneficial over LNG. Therefore, current CO2-only reduction policies and CO2 taxes are leading to misguided consequences and the switch from coal to gas, especially LNG, will not have the desired impact of reducing predicted future global warming, quite the contrary.
With IPCC's global warming potential of CH4 over 20 years, a ~2% higher loss of methane across the value chain prior to combustion of gas vs. coal will lead to "climate parity" of coal with gas. Analyzing IEA information, natural gas value chains have high methane and undocumented CO2 losses. On global average, natural gas emits ~20% more CO2eq than surface-mined coal. This difference increases as the use of shale gas and LNG expands.
Global GHG policies need to include documented changes in measured airborne CO2eq to avoid spending large amounts of public funds on ineffective or sub-optimal policies. I.e., most global funds, international banks, conglomerates, and insurances have publicly announced that, mostly for climate protection reasons, they will abandon coal but will continue to support LNG and pipeline natural gas projects which are all required to power human life. This is likely to have unexpected consequences.
The potential effects of a warming climate system should not be discounted or played down. However, the undisputed benefits of increased CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere because of its photosynthetic and growth effects (fertilization) on plants need to be considered in energy policy decisions as well.
The authors suggest sponsoring ultra-super-critical power plants, whether fossil fuel fired, nuclear, or renewable, at no cost to developing nations to reduce their emissions while also providing essential and reliable energy to encourage industrial growth. Such "technological" gifts could replace less efficient existing plants or even provide new power plants that have far higher emission reduction factors thereby supporting economic and environmental activities in both developing and developed nations.
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