Dan Mitchell Debating Modern Monetary Theory
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deficits do matter but they don't matter
in the ways that we've been
conventionally thinking about them and
the way we usually think about a deficit
is that it's evidence of excessive
spending and that's just wrong
evidence of excessive spending is
inflation so I would argue you don't
have a deficit problem or a debt problem
unless you have an inflation problem
let me bring Dan Mitchell in to respond
to all this dim well I think two things
first I agree with Stephanie that
economic growth and job creation is not
inflationary but other than that I think
we have some big disagreements I think
what she's basically describing is
Keynesianism on steroids and whether
you're part of the modern monetary
theory people that that think you can
basically finance more government with
the printing press or whether you're
talking about it we're in the sense that
Stephanie's talking about it we just
have bigger government that supposedly
is gonna be a perpetual motion machine
for the economy in either way I think
we're at risk of at best copying the
economic policies of Greece and at worst
copying the economic policies of
Venezuela fundamentally we're really
debating should government be a lot
bigger and if you want government to be
a lot bigger which I don't then you have
the challenge of how are you paying for
it and Stephanie's promoting a theory
that's rather unconventional even a lot
of left-wing economists disagree with it
is there anywhere in the world Stephanie
where mmt is is put into place I mean
Dan was speaking to comparison to a
profligate spending Greece or socialist
Venezuela but are there countries that
have adopted this yes the United States
of America because we already have any
money
yeah it's just a description of how the
federal budgeting process already works
and what we're saying is that we're not
taking full advantage of the space that
we have already today with the system
that we have to get better outcomes and
that's what I'm talking about when I say
a better mousetrap we have a system
today that does not deliver we have
crises one after another in this country
we have 44 million Americans who are
struggling with one and a half trillion
dollars of student loan debt 45,000
American's die every year because they
don't have hell
insurance we've got nearly half of the
population living in or near poverty ya
know and I yeah I take your point so let
me ask because a lot of this is coming
up coupled with programs like Medicare
for all or the green New Deal and some
estimates in medicare for all save cost
fifty trillion dollars over ten years
green New Deal kind of runs in the tens
of trillions to maybe upwards of
hundreds are you suggesting that this
would allow for those plans to be funded
what I'm saying in the simplest possible
terms is that Congress can write and
pass any budget it likes and the Fed
will clear the payments on behalf of the
government okay so that's just a simple
statement of kind of how the government
budgeting process works now am I saying
that because the government has the
power of the purse that it can spend
willy-nilly that it can fund trillions
and trillions of dollars of new spending
without ever needing to remove any of
that spending either by raising a tax or
by spending less in some other part of
the budget no that's not what I'm
suggesting but look with health care
we're already spending the money in fact
we're spending far more than any other
country on earth so we talked about
Medicare for all we're talking about
moving to a system that will allow us to
just try to get to the budget aspect of
this so dental ask you about this as
well so if moving to something like
Medicare for all costed fifty trillion
dollars over ten years or five trillion
more a year
Stephani suggesting that that could come
from and I'm sorry to use the term but
the printing press what would your
response be to that would that create
massive inflation or do you have other
concerns about that how that would work
in on the ground well if we're talking
about funding the entire so-called green
New Deal which is estimated anywhere
from forty trillion to upwards of 90
trillion if you think that can be funded
with the printing press you're talking
about Zimbabwe Venezuelan type territory
I simply don't believe you could in
effect create that much money finance
government just by writing a check on
the federal reserve and not having some
adverse consequences but I want to be
perfectly fair to Stephanie our real
debate is whether government should be
at your Greek Italian type levels or
whether it should be at current levels
and
fundamentally if you're gonna make
government a lot bigger it's gonna in
effect divert resources from the
productive sector of the economy whether
you finance it taxes whether you do it
by borrowing or by simply running the
printing presses figuratively Stephanie
we have 22 trillion dollars of existing
debt is would you suggest using this to
write that all down no no no I'm not
talking about creating trillions to fund
a new Green Deal and not offsetting any
of that spending I'm not worried about
the 22 trillion in debt because all the
national debt is it is a historical
record of all of the dollars that the
government spent into the economy and
didn't tax back that people are
currently saving in the form of US
Treasuries I'm not worried about 22
trillion in US assets being held in
portfolios and pensions and so forth all
of would it interest rates in to me what
I'm worried about being a little
intention
Stef's the only words I'm jumping in is
so if interest rates go out right now
they're very low which means the the
borrowing costs or the deficit right now
is very low and for the debt that you
mentioned so if interest rates go up a
little bit how do you propose to pay for
that do you continue to just expand the
money supply to meet whatever so if we
go from paying you know small
single-digit number per year to it
upwards of double-digit number per year
how do you how do you pay for that
without shrinking anything to offset
that do you just keep expanding the
money supply so it the government pays
interest on the debt the way it pays for
anything else
in other words the Federal Reserve will
change the numbers on the bondholders
account and there they will receive an
interest income payment it doesn't work
any differently what it means if
interest rates go up is that the subsidy
to bondholders gets much bigger and so
we could talk about ways to avoid having
that happen but that's probably a
different conversation and I know you're
talking about those stabilizers Dan
final word before we go is how realistic
do you think it is that this gains more
and more attraction and what happens if
it does well I think a hundred percent
of economists on the writer Center don't
like mmt and I think probably 75 to 80
percent of economists on the left don't
like it because simply state it you
can't for matically expand the burden of
government and somehow have it be free
and I think that's what at least
some supporters of modern monetary
theory want us to believe the Federal
Reserve cannot write checks to finance a
greek-style government because then you
wind up with a Venezuelan swaps
Venezuelan style economy Dan Mitchell
stephanie kelton thank you for joining
us today thank you
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Dan Mitchell Debating Modern Monetary Theory
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