Dan Mitchell Debating Modern Monetary Theory 2019/03/01

 Dan Mitchell Debating Modern Monetary Theory

https://youtu.be/4CIwS0PDs1g

文字起こし deficits do matter but they don't matter in the ways that we've been conventionally thinking about them and the way we usually think about a deficit is that it's evidence of excessive spending and that's just wrong evidence of excessive spending is inflation so I would argue you don't have a deficit problem or a debt problem unless you have an inflation problem let me bring Dan Mitchell in to respond to all this dim well I think two things first I agree with Stephanie that economic growth and job creation is not inflationary but other than that I think we have some big disagreements I think what she's basically describing is Keynesianism on steroids and whether you're part of the modern monetary theory people that that think you can basically finance more government with the printing press or whether you're talking about it we're in the sense that Stephanie's talking about it we just have bigger government that supposedly is gonna be a perpetual motion machine for the economy in either way I think we're at risk of at best copying the economic policies of Greece and at worst copying the economic policies of Venezuela fundamentally we're really debating should government be a lot bigger and if you want government to be a lot bigger which I don't then you have the challenge of how are you paying for it and Stephanie's promoting a theory that's rather unconventional even a lot of left-wing economists disagree with it is there anywhere in the world Stephanie where mmt is is put into place I mean Dan was speaking to comparison to a profligate spending Greece or socialist Venezuela but are there countries that have adopted this yes the United States of America because we already have any money yeah it's just a description of how the federal budgeting process already works and what we're saying is that we're not taking full advantage of the space that we have already today with the system that we have to get better outcomes and that's what I'm talking about when I say a better mousetrap we have a system today that does not deliver we have crises one after another in this country we have 44 million Americans who are struggling with one and a half trillion dollars of student loan debt 45,000 American's die every year because they don't have hell insurance we've got nearly half of the population living in or near poverty ya know and I yeah I take your point so let me ask because a lot of this is coming up coupled with programs like Medicare for all or the green New Deal and some estimates in medicare for all save cost fifty trillion dollars over ten years green New Deal kind of runs in the tens of trillions to maybe upwards of hundreds are you suggesting that this would allow for those plans to be funded what I'm saying in the simplest possible terms is that Congress can write and pass any budget it likes and the Fed will clear the payments on behalf of the government okay so that's just a simple statement of kind of how the government budgeting process works now am I saying that because the government has the power of the purse that it can spend willy-nilly that it can fund trillions and trillions of dollars of new spending without ever needing to remove any of that spending either by raising a tax or by spending less in some other part of the budget no that's not what I'm suggesting but look with health care we're already spending the money in fact we're spending far more than any other country on earth so we talked about Medicare for all we're talking about moving to a system that will allow us to just try to get to the budget aspect of this so dental ask you about this as well so if moving to something like Medicare for all costed fifty trillion dollars over ten years or five trillion more a year Stephani suggesting that that could come from and I'm sorry to use the term but the printing press what would your response be to that would that create massive inflation or do you have other concerns about that how that would work in on the ground well if we're talking about funding the entire so-called green New Deal which is estimated anywhere from forty trillion to upwards of 90 trillion if you think that can be funded with the printing press you're talking about Zimbabwe Venezuelan type territory I simply don't believe you could in effect create that much money finance government just by writing a check on the federal reserve and not having some adverse consequences but I want to be perfectly fair to Stephanie our real debate is whether government should be at your Greek Italian type levels or whether it should be at current levels and fundamentally if you're gonna make government a lot bigger it's gonna in effect divert resources from the productive sector of the economy whether you finance it taxes whether you do it by borrowing or by simply running the printing presses figuratively Stephanie we have 22 trillion dollars of existing debt is would you suggest using this to write that all down no no no I'm not talking about creating trillions to fund a new Green Deal and not offsetting any of that spending I'm not worried about the 22 trillion in debt because all the national debt is it is a historical record of all of the dollars that the government spent into the economy and didn't tax back that people are currently saving in the form of US Treasuries I'm not worried about 22 trillion in US assets being held in portfolios and pensions and so forth all of would it interest rates in to me what I'm worried about being a little intention Stef's the only words I'm jumping in is so if interest rates go out right now they're very low which means the the borrowing costs or the deficit right now is very low and for the debt that you mentioned so if interest rates go up a little bit how do you propose to pay for that do you continue to just expand the money supply to meet whatever so if we go from paying you know small single-digit number per year to it upwards of double-digit number per year how do you how do you pay for that without shrinking anything to offset that do you just keep expanding the money supply so it the government pays interest on the debt the way it pays for anything else in other words the Federal Reserve will change the numbers on the bondholders account and there they will receive an interest income payment it doesn't work any differently what it means if interest rates go up is that the subsidy to bondholders gets much bigger and so we could talk about ways to avoid having that happen but that's probably a different conversation and I know you're talking about those stabilizers Dan final word before we go is how realistic do you think it is that this gains more and more attraction and what happens if it does well I think a hundred percent of economists on the writer Center don't like mmt and I think probably 75 to 80 percent of economists on the left don't like it because simply state it you can't for matically expand the burden of government and somehow have it be free and I think that's what at least some supporters of modern monetary theory want us to believe the Federal Reserve cannot write checks to finance a greek-style government because then you wind up with a Venezuelan swaps Venezuelan style economy Dan Mitchell stephanie kelton thank you for joining us today thank you 英語 (自動生成) Dan Mitchell Debating Modern Monetary Theory 5,655 回視聴•2019/03/01 80 27 共有 保存 Dan Mitchell チャンネル登録者数 431人 チャンネル登録 次の動画 1:10:20 再生中 L. 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