Exponential functions for expectations under uncertainty: Given uncertain future, investors assume that "the present is a much more serviceable quide to the future than a candid examination of past experience would show it to have been hitherto" (Keynes 1936, p. 214) extrapolate current trends forward and that's the 不確実性の下での期待値の指数関数 不確実な未来が与えられた場合、投資家は、" 現在は未来へのより多くの役に立てるようになる 過去の経験よりも これまではそうであったことを示している」（ケインズ 1936, p.214）。 現在のトレンドを前方に外挿し それは
Given uncertain future, investors assume that "the present is a much more serviceable quide to the future than a candid examination of past experience would show it to have been hitherto" (Keynes 1936, p. 214)
Induction appears in Keynes’s treatment as a convention, the convention being that ‘the present is a much more serviceable guide to the future than a candid examination of past experience would show it to have been hitherto’ (Keynes, 1973C, p. 114). Keynes JM The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes. Vol. 14. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press; 1973C. https://robertskidelsky.com/2011/01/17/the-relevance-of-keynes/
A second convention that Keynes emphasises is the testimony of the crowd. ‘Knowing that our own individual judgment is worthless we fall back on the judgment of the majority or the average’ (Keynes, 1973C, p.114). We follow the crowd, which itself relies on the opinion of experts, who are themselves trying to guess ‘what average opinion expects average opinion to be’ (Keynes, 1973A, p. 150).
返信削除Exponential functions for expectations under uncertainty:
Given uncertain future, investors assume that "the
present is a much more serviceable quide to the future
than a candid examination of past experience would
show it to have been hitherto" (Keynes 1936, p. 214)
extrapolate current trends forward and
that's the
不確実性の下での期待値の指数関数
不確実な未来が与えられた場合、投資家は、"
現在は未来へのより多くの役に立てるようになる
過去の経験よりも
これまではそうであったことを示している」（ケインズ 1936, p.214）。
現在のトレンドを前方に外挿し
それは
Given uncertain future, investors assume that "the
返信削除present is a much more serviceable quide to the future
than a candid examination of past experience would
show it to have been hitherto" (Keynes 1936, p. 214)
Induction appears in Keynes’s treatment as a convention, the convention being that ‘the present is a much more serviceable guide to the future than a candid examination of past experience would show it to have been hitherto’ (Keynes, 1973C, p. 114).
返信削除Keynes JM The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes. Vol. 14. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press; 1973C.
https://robertskidelsky.com/2011/01/17/the-relevance-of-keynes/
A second convention that Keynes emphasises is the testimony of the crowd. ‘Knowing that our own individual judgment is worthless we fall back on the judgment of the majority or the average’ (Keynes, 1973C, p.114). We follow the crowd, which itself relies on the opinion of experts, who are themselves trying to guess ‘what average opinion expects average opinion to be’ (Keynes, 1973A, p. 150).